Published October 8, 2026 in Market Update

The under $400k market is still moving faster than new supply

By JJ Johannes

Real estate, DOTW - CR Metro Under $400k

Rates are up. Payments are bigger. And yet the market here keeps moving. Freddie Mac put the 30-year fixed rate at 7.28% as of October 1, 2026. That is real money on a monthly payment. But the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,161 homes sold across the CR Metro under $400k market in the three months ending August 31, 2026. New listings came in at 1,105. More homes sold than came to market. That gap is what matters.

That absorption gap tells you something plain. Buyers are still out here making moves, even with higher rates. Supply is not keeping up. That keeps pressure on prices and keeps timelines short.

Speed by ZIP: where homes are going fastest

Not every ZIP reads the same. The Real Estate Data Aggregator shows median days on market ranging from 5 days in ZIP 52405 all the way to 70 days in ZIP 52233, for the same three-month period. That is a wide spread. Your street can look very different from the ZIP average.

Most homes are going under contract within two weeks

In ZIP 52405, the Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 69.6% of homes going under contract within two weeks of listing. ZIP 52402 was at 63%, and ZIP 52404 was at 60.4%. Even ZIP 52403 hit 48.9%. These are not slow markets. If you are buying, you need to be ready. If you are selling, the first two weeks are your window.

Prices are mostly rising, with a couple of exceptions

Most ZIPs posted price gains year over year. ZIP 52404 led with a median of $237,745, up 10.6% from the same months of 2025, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. ZIP 52233 hit $360,000, up 12.5%. ZIP 52402 came in at $217,000, up 7.4%. ZIP 52403 reached $221,000, up 7.9%.

Two ZIPs dipped a little. ZIP 52245 came in at $325,000, down 6.7% from a year ago. ZIP 52405 landed at $205,750, also down 6.7%. Sales volume in both was softer too. That does not mean those areas are in trouble, but it does mean pricing right matters more there.

Homes are still selling above list in most ZIPs

The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 55.1% of homes in ZIP 52233 selling above list price. That is the highest share in the market. ZIP 52402 was at 43.8%, and ZIP 52405 at 43.3%. Even ZIP 52245, where the median price dipped, saw 23.9% of homes sell above ask. Nationally, Realtor.com reported that 20.8% of listings had price reductions in September 2026, the highest share since October 2022. Our local numbers tell a different story.

Supply is tight, and getting tighter

ZIP 52402 had just 0.6 months of supply, per the Real Estate Data Aggregator. That is down 1.2 months from a year ago. ZIP 52405 was at 0.8 months. ZIP 52403 sat at 1.1 months. A balanced market is usually around 4 to 6 months. We are nowhere near that. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported U.S. house prices rose 2.6% from July 2025 to July 2026. Our tighter local supply is one reason our numbers in most ZIPs are running ahead of that.

What this means if you are buying

Freddie Mac's 7.28% rate is real. Your payment is higher than it was two years ago. But waiting for supply to open up has not been the winning move. The Real Estate Data Aggregator counted 1,047 pending sales across this market in the same three months. Buyers are still going. Come in with a clean offer and a clear number.

What this means if you are selling

The market is moving fast, but not for every home. ZIP 52233 averaged 70 days on market even while 55.1% of its homes sold above list. That tells you condition and price still drive the outcome. Price it right from day one. The first two weeks decide most of it.